Syrians Break the Barrier of Fear: Is Assad Capable of Enacting Major Change?

“May you rise with the sun to a new Coup D’etat”. This was a common greeting heard on the streets of Damascus during the 1950’s and 60’s. Although politically satirical, this phrase symbolized the frailty of institutions of a fledgling Syrian republic before Hafez Assad became President. Forty years on and the Assad family like no other in the region is poised to leave its indelible mark on a power base that stretches from Iran to the East and Gaza and Lebanon to the West. Today Assad the son under pressure from the uprising in many cities in Syria announced the lifting of emergency laws that have been in place since 1962. Will he be successful in implementing the changes needed before it's too late? Syrians who lived in paralyzing fear for more than four decades might have reached the point of no return.

On a recent visit to Syria while working on an EU project, I met with the now ousted governor of Daraa, Faisal Koulthum who was a high ranking official in the Baath Party. A professor with two PhD degrees from the West, Koulthoum represented the promise of the new leadership under Bashar Assad. I wondered why such an important Baath party figure so close to the president could be appointed to a remote area like Daraa? I suspect now that Assad wanted a loyal ally with a common vision for reform to lead that region. Obviously the problems were beyond poverty in a drought-stricken region, it was more of a political power struggle for leadership between the Old Guard of Assad the father and the educated class of the son.

The uprising that started in the impoverished city of Daraa on March 20th unexpectedly crept into the psyche of freedom loving Syrians all throughout the country and has the potential of toppling the regime and tipping the delicate balance of power from Iran to Israel. Political observers in the West who might have been skeptical of whether real change will come to the whole region, held their collective breath until Syrian youths took to the streets of this drought stricken farming Governate of Daraa. World Leaders who have been very vocal about Libya and Egypt have been unusually silent about Syria. What does the political world know about Syria that the rest of us don’t know? Would a strong condemnation from the West and the Arab League trigger the awakening of the powerful Shia Crescent --Iran, Syria and Hezbollah -- and would such an awakening trigger a region-wide conflict?

Syria is one of four major sphere-of-influence nations in the Arab world. Morocco, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are the other regional powers to which Arab masses gravitate. All the remaining Arab countries are considered client- nations according to Soheil Kash, author of In The Beginning was the Objection: An Introduction to Arab political thought. These four power centers were the ones who manipulated the Arab street and influenced Western interference in the region. Now, it is these four power poles the are leading change in the Arab World. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia announced $40 Billion of economic stimulus to quell any potential uprising. King Muhammad VI of Morocco responded to the demonstrations with a timetable for constitutional reforms. In Egypt the political tug of war between the military establishment and the reformists which include the Muslim Brotherhood leave the country with an uncertain political future. In the last week the wind of change has broken down the door to Syria.

“Our political evolution will be different” tells me an aid to the Governor of Daraa. “ Hafez Assad brought stability to Syria by oppressing the people and enriching the Baath Leadership. The son is trying his hand in reform without the political and military clout that his father had.”

Syria’s regional dominance started when Assad the father came into power in 1970 through a bloodless coup and after the death of Jamal Abdel Nasser the most charismatic politician in modern day Middle East. Assad immediately aligned himself with the Russians to reach strategic parity with Israel which was an ally of the other superpower, the US. His initial ambition had the potential to develop Syria politically and economically, but as things evolved he failed to deliver on his promises. This failure steered much internal unrest but the shell of social secularism he created kept the Alawite minority in top positions of the Baath party. The military became the sole tool that Assad used to make his local and regional presence known from crushing the uprising in Hama to the meddling in Lebanon’s civil war and helping Iran cement Hizbollah’s role as the front line resistance against Israel. These policies stayed in place until Bashar Assad came to power in June 2000. The son was hailed as the reformer, but was unable to break the barriers to the network of high corruption and the economic monopolies that his father’s inner circle had created. Bashar coundn’t even deliver on his promise to eliminate the notorious Mazze jail -- the thought of which still sends shivers down the spine of every Syrian and Lebanese political descendant.

Mohammad, a Syrian archaeologist working on the restoration of one of the most preserved Roman coliseum outside Italy was very outspoken about the current regime. We met when I was in Daraa working on a development project with the EU. Mohammad caught the freedom bug while studying in Italy and he frequently joked about the number of times the Syrian Mukhabarat (secret service) picked him up and hauled him to jail in the middle of the night only to be let go a few days later after his mother begged local authorities for his release.

Criticizing the regime was off limits. Even though Bashar Assad set out to be more progressive than his father, he had to adjust his vision to how much he can do in light of the opposition from the old guard. Many Syrians I met praised him and his educated wife Asma for their approach on Syria’s transition to modernity. Bashar implemented mandatory education for all young people, brought computers to schools and community centers, renovated libraries and more recently opened up the banking system and started the first stock exchange in Syria. While all these changes were happening, they were not met by corresponding inclusion of opposition parties and political reforms that would enable their long-term viability. During a recent interview with al-Arabiya TV network a high ranking supporter of Assad’s reforms was pressed by the interviewer about the lack of progress on the reforms that were promised by the President. When he was pushed to change his standard answer, the truth about what was preventing real change from taking place came out of his mouth in a barrage of repetitive phrases “it is the Old Guard...its the Old Guard..”

Based on my past work in Syria and the study of its value-systems, religions, power structures, and the dynamics of polarity, the chances of the country falling into a sectarian civil war are high. The most pressing issue is the possible defection of powerful Sunni generals who now have orders to shoot at their Sunni brothers.Should this happen the Alawite high command of the Syrian Army could seek the help of Iran and Hezbollah turning an internal conflict into a regional one. In such complex situation the fall of the regime in Syria has far reaching ramifications between the Sunni and Shia crescent and the potential of tipping the balance of power in the region.

In this still unfolding dynamic two scenarios could emerge: the first one would call on Assad to prove worthy of leading his people by immediately curtailing the power of the old guard in any way possible; introduce a specific timetable for reforms and lift emergency laws that have been in effect for 48 years. In this scenario Assad would need to bring the opposition leaders in Syria and abroad to the table, and establish structures and milestones to be achieved by a Syria-specific formula for power sharing. The second scenario, sees the failure of Assad to embark on real reforms where the old guard continues their monopoly over the country’s institutions and economy leading to a prolonged civil war with rippling effects in the region. This will play well into the hands of the Iranian regime that has been pumping billions into Syria. Iran will not sit quietly watching its investment into the Shia crescent go to waste.

The Western world's reluctance to interfere in the affairs of Syria might be well justified right now. However, the US and its allies have to have a systemic strategy that can meet the different scenarios and outcomes of the Syrian uprising.

While in Bosra Al-Sham a village on the outskirts of Daraa, I met many promising high school girls who had a good understanding of what their generation needs to do to help build Syrian society. Learning English was on the top of their list tells me Dalia a young woman who teaches at the girl’s school where most courses are taught in Arabic. Growing up in such a poor region learning English is a ticket out of poverty as it will provide a tool to communicate with tourists and to connect with the world on the Internet. Throughout my travels in Syria, I did not meet a young Syrian who does not exhibit a sense of nationalistic pride.In spite of the political conflicts that seem to hover as a dark cloud over their ambitious minds, they still keep their resolve to build Syria to a 21st century standard.

Tomorrow, Bashar Assad will speak to Syrians, in what his spokesperson called “A very important speech.” How important would this speech be to the heroic Syrian activists who risked their lives --many of them were jailed for several years-- to afford their fellow Syrians freedom of speech, the right to have an attorney defend you before they throw in jail, and the right to have descent jobs. What kind of vision Assad will present to the nation to move it to the 21st century, and what is his time line to implement reform and awaken the capacities that are waiting to burst in young Syrians?

Emerging Patterns in the Middle East-Published in Integral Leadership Review

A previously posted blog was expanded into an article published in Integral Leadership Review, the leading publication in the new field of Integral studies.

This article is an attempt to provide an analysis of patterns of dissonance, societal downshifts and emergence in the Middle East, with a focus on Lebanon and Iran. http://integralleadershipreview.com/archives/2009-10/2009-10-11-article-maalouf.php

Emerging Patterns in the Middle East: The Thirty Year Itch for Lebanon and Iran

Elza S. Maalouf

My first year of Law School in Lebanon, was a year to remember. I recall the heated political discussions I had with Shia students and professors alike over many long hours ranging from discussing the merits of Marxism to laws on women’s rights in Lebanon and the role religion plays in law. These same students who I played tennis with would return the following year with the trademark Islamist beard and buttoned-up white shirt and refused to shake my hand or establish any eye contact. It was in that academic setting that I witnessed the birth of the Hezbollah movement created and financed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. This new generation of educated Shia was empowered by Khomieni’s Islamic revolution and the hope of shaping Lebanon’s national identity into a “just” model of an Islamic Emirate. Many years have passed since and the model for both countries is now going through unprecedented challenges.

The Search For National Identity

On March 14th, 2005 one million Lebanese citizens gathered in Beirut’s Martyr Square, the symbol of Lebanon's 1943 Independence from France. They were protesting against the presence of Syrian forces in Lebanon. The Cedar Revolution, as it was called, ended the 30 year Syrian occupation of Lebanon which started in 1975 when Syrian Forces entered Lebanon as peacekeepers to protect the Christians and crush the Palestinian dominance in Beirut. Two years later, the Syrians managed to reignite the sectarian civil war by siding with the Palestinians when it served their regional interests then turned around and bombed them again when they felt they were out of control. In the absence of strong Lebanese leaders, the Syrians dominated every aspect of Lebanese life for 30 years. The one million Lebanese of the March 14th Cedar Rebellion were not only rejecting the Syrian occupation of their country, but also one of the worst economic conditions in the Middle East, which was brought about by one of the highest levels of corruption in the world. This was orchestrated by Lebanese power lords under the protection of their masters in Damascus.

This past June in Iran, one million Iranians gathered in Tehran’s Freedom Square to protest the 'sham' elections and demand their voices be heard. "Tehran Rising" is happening 30 years after Ayatollah Khomeini and a number of visionary young leaders who rejected the Shah’s elitist rule in 1979 and established the Islamic Republic of Iran. Mir Ali Mousavi had a role to play in that revolution, and a bloody one at that. His supporters, more so than Mousavi himself, currently are not fighting the principles of the revolution; they are fighting the collapse of Iran’s economy, corruption, and incompetency in government.

Memetic Side View of Both Cultures

As I looked, through my developmental lenses, at both events and the cultures that produced them, the patterns of emergence that are unique to that part of the world in the 21st century were becoming clear. Beirut, Tehran, Baghdad, Kabul, and Cairo were some of the most progressive capital cities in the region at the dawn of the 20th Century. Those cities were compared to Paris in culture, modernity and uniqueness. However, such notions of freedom and progress were almost exclusive to the capital cities, and rarely spread to the rest of the country. Inhabitants of these capitals had access to Western education and progressive schools of thought while their compatriots lagged behind in the darkness of tribal norms and feudal dominance. A split cultural personality, we may say. That tension between modernity centered in the capitals. The strong hold of tribalism, poverty and illiteracy in the rest of the country created a large gap that eventually ended up being the primary cause of each culture's downshift.

In Clare W. Graves “Emergent Cyclic Double-Helix Model of Adult Biopsychosocial Systems" theory that forms the basis for Dr. Beck’s Spiral Dynamics, the Double Helix gives us the key to evolution in cultures—as life conditions change, biopsychosocial systems within people and cultures have the potential to change to find solutions to their existential problems. Naturally, when people find solutions to their problems they create new ones, a process Graves elegantly called "the never ending quest." Let's explore the particular case study of Lebanon and Iran.

THE PATTERNS:

1. Asymmetry within the Culture: Tehran and Beirut became beacons of (closed loop) progress that stayed within the confines of the city, and communicated outward with the Western world. This was a complete disconnect from the rest of the country. Anybody who sought a progressive life moved into the respective cities, rather than having a strong central government with long-term development plans that bring progress to rural areas. That caused a gap in values between what was seen as elite, and the rest of the country.

2. Skipping Stages of Development: the principles of cultural development are similar to human development. Cultures cannot skip a stage; there are rites of passage that contribute to building cultural capacities similar to human capacities. In this case, in absence of institutions (public and private) that are in charge of designing and implementing long term developmental strategies for the whole country the rural country side would remain set back in time. This phenomenon left a gaping hole that invited extremist ideological groups to take control of neglected areas. Imagine France moving abruptly from monarchy to a capitalistic society ruled by an economic elite without going through the Revolution of "Liberty, Fraternity, Equality" that established the basis for a representative form of government where citizens are equal under the law. A principle that is still missing in the whole Middle East including Israel.

3. Extremists Brand of Islam became the Answer: Marxist brand of nationalism that was spread by Egypt's Nasser in the 1950s to bridge the gap between the haves and have-nots, was transformed into an Islamist brand of nationalism in both Lebanon and Iran. Khomeini's Islamic revolution gained ground with the disadvantaged in Iran, especially the ambitious young generation that supported the needed change with vengeance. The same happened in Lebanon. Actually, Hezbollah's previous name was The Disadvantaged, "Al Mahroumeen." Young Shia men and women were the disenfranchised majority in Lebanon, neglected by the government and especially by their own Shia oligarchs.

4. Divided Loyalties: In both countries, while one million people asked to break away from extremist ideology, another million took to the streets in support of the extremists. Contrary to what the West thinks, these are not paid demonstrators. They have shared values and shared interests with the leaders of extremist movements. In part, they wish to preserve their jobs in cultures where there are few jobs and in another they do support the continued search for national identity that’s not defined by Western influence.

5. Corruption: In Lebanon's case, the Syrian regime transformed a state, already ravaged with corruption and Barteel (primitive form of bribery) into a restriction-free zone for its illegal activities from drug trafficking to money laundering and out-right stealing through their Lebanese agents like Hezbollah and its Sunni and Christian cohorts. In Iran, the promise of an egalitarian Islamic Republic (Marxist style) turned into a repressive and incompetent regime where bureaucrats were replaced by the regime's cronies who lacked the skills needed to perform critical government functions. The regime guaranteed loyal following by supporters by continuing these hiring practices that eventually took hold of most government institutions. As a result, Ahmedinejad was elected by a high percentage of Iranians to counteract the Aytullahs turned oligarchs like Rafsanjani and politicians like Mousavi.

6. Lack of Opportunities: In a 2007 report UNICEF gave this grim account of Lebanon's dire situation: "Lebanese youth below the age of 25 years, who constitute more than half of the population, suffer from weak integration in the social environment and from the economic crisis. They are faced by unemployment due to lack of jobs, difficulty of getting into the work cycle and difficulty of securing a house or a place to live." The same goes for Iran where more than half of the population is under 25, suffering the wrath of an incompetent government, high unemployment rates and rampant poverty.

7. The Wisdom of the Crowd Surpassed that of their Leaders: The discontent with the extremists suppression reached critical mass and empowered the reform crowds in both countries to lead their leaders; not the other way around. Mousavi and March 14th leaders became mere symbols of forward progress. They now have to implement the changes dictated by the collective intelligence.

8. Dissonance: Social tension and unrest is the critical wave through which the evolutionary pulse becomes alive. What is happening now in Iran and still going on behind the scenes in Lebanon is the dissonance needed for emergence to happen. Since the start of the unrest in Iran Ayatollah Khamenei blamed it all on Israeli and American spies, and refuses to surrender to the will of the people. These tactics have proven successful in a region ravaged by internal dysfunction and a distrusting image of Western interference as Ahmadinajad gets sworn in for a second term. In Lebanon, the Hezbollah coalition after being defeated politically is now mobilizing its military, PR and Intelligence machine to keep holding Lebanon hostage. Their propagandist argument is that the Lebanese military is not ready to defend the country against the “Zionist Enemy.”

Conditions for Change

These patterns have taken 30 years to unfold in Iran and Lebanon. Do I expect that every country in the Middle East will take 30 years to emerge? Of course not. Do I expect immediate change to take hold just because Bush is gone? Of course not. Are we seeing signs of an evolutionary change? Absolutely. Graves-Beck theory sites the following six conditions for change:

• POTENTIAL in the brain syndicate of the culture

• SOLUTIONS for problems at present level

• DISSONANCE about conditions & future

• BARRIERS to change identified & managed

• INSIGHT into alternative forms & means

• CONSOLIDATION & SUPPORT in transition

Strong aspects of these conditions are present in both cultures. Change will not only affect Lebanon and Iran, but will culminate in a tipping point that will trigger change in the region. Over the decades, many factors influenced the underlying codes that cause change starting in recent history with the Israel/Palestine conflict, dictatorships, Marxism, the Cold War, Western interference, oil and many other factors. To the dismay of many, I have to give George Bush credit for focusing on what he called 'democracy' in the Middle East. Bush’s approach did not have a systemic strategy, but aimed at securing (not controlling) the oil reserve in the region. His hawkish Wild West-style philosophy created more dissonance, which is as I mentioned before is a critical condition for change. The pragmatists in the Middle East snatched the opportunity to distance themselves from the “American enemy” and raise their voices either against him or against their country’s oppressive regimes.

How the US can Play a Sustainable Role

As President Obama is now trying to give legitimacy to American interference in the region, he is seen as both, friendly and weak. His speech in Egypt termed historic by Western media, received mixed reviews in the Muslim world. Extremists adopted a wait-and-see attitude while progressives found many good points in his call for mutual respect and promise of no meddling. These same progressive thinking academic and community leaders were also critical of his constant reference to his Muslim background and quoting the Quran when the issues of extremism, poverty and oppression are not only about Islam, but are part and parcel of US support of repressive regimes. The hope speech ran aground in a region facing insurmountable challenges that first world countries can’t even fathom. Millions of Egyptian children on the streets of Cairo go to sleep hungry every night while their leaders continue to squander billions in US aid. The same is repeated throughout the Muslim world with only a few exceptions.

US policy cannot afford to be hawkish like Bush was on one end or idealistic like the Obama Administration is being on the other. It has to strike a balance—in actions on the ground and not in rhetoric—between pressuring the authoritarian regimes to reform and withholding both financial and military aid. A deeper US commitment will require a shift from the current paradigm of what is best for us to what is best for a globally interwoven world that takes into consideration the Memetic contours and patterns of emergence in the region.

---

Elza S. Maalouf is an Arab-American futurist and cultural development specialist focusing her work on cultural, business and political reform in the Arab world. As one of the foremost futurists and expert in Memetics of the Middle East, Elza was named one of today’s brightest minds. She is co-founder of the Center for Human Emergence Middle East, a think tank that emphasizes the scientific understanding of cultures through the prism of the "bio-psycho-social systems" framework of Clare W. Graves and his colleague and successor Dr. Don Beck. She has pioneered the Integral movement and the application of Spiral Dynamics integral in the Middle East. In her iPolitics blog, Maalouf examines Memetic patterns of emergence in the region and offers analysis of the anatomy of conflicts in the Muslim World.

Her firm Integral Insights Consulting (IIC) is advising business leaders on uniquely Arab integral design for business in the post-oil era with a focus on their most precious resource, their Gen Y.

"A Requiem for the Age of Oil:" Affecting Gen Y & Women in the Muslim World

In their series "Speaking to Futurists," EnlightenNext asked Ray Kurzweil, John Peterson, Patricia Aburdene, Joel Garreau and myself about " The biggest shift or shifts in the next few years."

My topic was the Middle East and the Muslim world. Here's a snippet from the interview posted on EnlightenNext website:

“We’re entering a requiem for the age of oil,” says Lebanon-born cultural development expert Elza Maalouf, “one that will no doubt push oil-rich countries to look for other ways to enrich themselves.” Maalouf, who heads up the Center for Human Emergence—Middle East, has some cutting-edge ideas about just how these nations might go about doing that.

In this interview with EnlightenNext senior editor Elizabeth Debold, Maalouf outlines some of the most promising trends she sees emerging across the Muslim world. Maalouf is not your average international development consultant. A former lawyer and corporate executive with over a decade of experience in depth psychology and consciousness studies, her specialty is finding practical, on-the-ground applications for the theoretical framework of cultural evolution known as Spiral Dynamics. She says that the future of the Middle East will be decided by how much these oil-rich nations support the development of their most valuable resource: their own people. Drawing on her work in countries across the region like Syria, Palestine, and Qatar, she explains why she thinks that expanding the opportunities for women and the rising generation of young people (the vast majority of the population) is the biggest challenge and opportunity for Muslim countries as they transition into the twenty-first-century, globally connected world.

You can hear the whole interview here...

During the early days of the Iran GenY Internet revolution (June, July 09), Joel Pitney quoted my interview on his EnlightenNext blog confirming what I said about Muslim youths read more...

Here's my comment on Joel's blog post:

Dear Joel,

Thank you for initiating this timely debate. What is happening in Iran is a clear manifestation of the sea change taking place in the Muslim world which is triggered by countless Memetic factors that have converged to add complexity to the ‘habitat’ of the culture. This phenomenon is in turn activating more complexity in the “biospychosocial systems” of that culture. In an era where technological complexity is surpassing brain complexity, emergence of cultures is exponentially accelerated. In the case of Iran as you mentioned, Gen Y is maximizing its use of the Internet and IT, and no longer accepts the Mullah’s narrow definition of worldview. Iranian women are maximizing the use of what I call IMT - Innovations in Memetic Technology-. These are the skills that read the cultural DNA and provide the appropriate support through culturally-fit solutions.
My work for the last 20 years in the Muslim world has been to interpret and document these memetic changes, while working in the field as a business consultant and socio-political adviser. This is what allows me to uncover the deeper patterns of emergence rather than just trends and surface changes.
When I mentioned a “Requiem for the Age of Oil,” it was a reference to oil being the currency that rarely contributed to the development of human resources in those countries, and only concentrated the wealth in the hands of the few. The data is clear about peak oil, as most OPEC countries are facing higher costs for extracting every additional barrel, and after 9/11 the West woke up to the reality of the environmental and national security consequences of its dependency on oil . I am talking here about ‘tipping points’ or phenomena that are accelerating change dramatically while keeping in mind that change in the developmental stages of cultures might take decades.
The largest producers of oil like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE are now focused on building their infrastructure; from traditional manufacturing in Saudi Arabia to Ivy League type higher education in UAE, Qatar and Kuwait. Currently the Persian Gulf is the home of the most ambitious government spending programs to fully develop a full range of industrial capacity with a focus on solar farms and green cities.
These measures towards self-reliance will drastically reduce the unemployment rates and offer job opportunities to Gen Y and women in specific. These home grown 1st world type conditions will bring equality and educational standards that fit the unique contours of each culture, rather than a Western projection of what equality ‘should’ mean to emerging cultures.

Since the brief interview in EnlightenNext was subject specific, we couldn’t cover intricate details. You can read my iPolitics blog and a more detailed essay on the patterns of emergence in the Middle East with a comparative study of these patterns in Iran and Lebanon

Obama Should Not Interfere Publicly in Iran's Elections

I don't give President Obama high marks on several foreign policy issues, yet when it comes to his tempered response to the 'sham' elections in Iran, I fully support his stance.

Even Obama's presidential contender who claims to have more foreign policy expertise got it wrong. In his interview with Gretta Van Susteren, McCain insisted that the president should make a forceful declaration against the disputed results of the Iran presidential elections. In his interview today on NBC he gave more details, read here.

Here's why I disagree with Senator McCain.

In the hotspots of the Muslim world, the us vs. them is defined by extremists groups against pro-West groups. Progressives in Iran, Lebanon and Egypt are not seen by extremists as a product of the evolutionary pulse of the culture, rather as agents of the West. Cases in point:
When Condi Rice shook hands with the secular progressive Egyptian politician Ayman Nour, who led the Al Ghad party in opposing the dictatorship of President Husni Mubarak, demanding constitutional reform and respect for human rights, he was immediately vilified by the Muslim Brotherhood and considered an American agent. This was a huge set back for the secular reform movement in Egypt and consequently allowed more fundamentalism to spread.

Again, when Secretary Rice visited the pro-Western Prime Minister Seniora in Lebanon during Israel's war on Hezbollah in 2006, Hezbollah used this event to cast PM Seniora and the pro-West coalition in the role of Zionist sympathizers. Something that enraged even pro-West Lebanese who were in shelters and came out in support of Hezbollah while their country was under heavy bombardment from Israel. Hence, winning Hezbollah the Arab street support beyond Lebanon's borders that they still enjoy today.

For these reasons, and many others we've documented in Palestine, Iraq and elsewhere in the Muslim world, I believe that President Obama is doing the right thing. If he comes out in support of Mousavi and his Green movement, the whole movement will be treated like traitors. This will make the job of Ayatollah Khameini and Ahmedinejad so easy. They will concoct the evidence that Mousavi is an American agent. In addition, there is no doubt that the US is continuing its covert operations in Iran, through NGOs and other means. Why follow it with rehtoric that the Mullahs are anxiously awaiting to take advantage of.

These are internal dynamics in Iran that have been percolating for more than 30 years. It is Iranian themselves that deserve credit for this "Tehran Rising." and no one else.

This is where we should leave well alone and put the unclenched fist policy of this new administration to the test.

What are your thoughts?

Biden's Lebanon SpeechReinforces the Lack of Foresight in US Foreign Policy

Joe Biden was in Lebanon today following Secretary Clinton's visit to reassure the pro-Western government (March 14 Movement) that the US is their staunch supporter despite the deals the Obama administration is trying to cut with Syria and Iran. The March 14 Movement formed as a reaction to the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the 5 time Prime Minister. It is widely believed in Lebanon and in Sunni Arab countries that Syrian-Iranian intelligence are responsible for Hariri's assassination.

The March 14th Movement fears that Obama will cave in to Syria's demands and grant the Syrians back the power they once had in running Lebanese internal affairs. To the Obama administration that's hell-bent on getting things done at neck-breaking speed, the thinking is that this move will accelerate the Arab Israeli peace process, and pry Syria out of Iran's tight grip. Knowing that Lebanon was the pawn thrown to the Syrians by Reagan in the place of the Golan Heights, the Lebanese are weary that Obama now is pursuing the same policy that will bring back the Syrians for another 30 years. Prying Syria from the hands of Iran is not only a far reaching and unattainable goal, but one that cannot be achieve since the West cannot offer Syria what it is getting from Iran: $1 Billion in subsidized Gas, the manufacturing of Syrian made cars and all the financing they need for supporting terrorism in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. These activities will keep Syria the uncontested power of the Arab world that the West must deal with.The old Western economic incentive to walk away from terrorism model has lost its luster since China is already making better deals and investments in Syria than the US with its current stance.

Speaking at the Presidential Palace in Beirut, Biden declared that "We will evaluate the shape of our assistance program based on the composition of the new government and the policies it advocates," a clear message to the Lebanese not to elect the Hezbollah led opposition.

Since the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri , (a close friend of the Bush family and France's Jacque Chirac) the US military aid to Lebanon has exceeded $400 Million, and more than a Billion in infrastructure and humanitarian aid. The military aid was always a source of dilemma for US administartion: on one hand, having strong military might help keep militias at check. On another, most Lebanese who enlist in the military are Shia with loyalty and a soft spot for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah criticized Biden's visit issuing the following statement "The high American interest in Lebanon raises strong suspicion as to the real reason behind it, especially since it has become a clear and detailed intervention in Lebanese affairs." This statement is coming from the same militia that gets its minute to minute instructions from Iran, and who's offices are adorned with pictures of Ayatollah Khamenei not the Lebanese President.

What Biden and the US administration do not get is that their $1 Billion support to the Lebanese Government is surpassed by Billions of dollars from Iran that are going to maintain Hezbollah's military superiority, direct aid to Hezbollah supporters in the form of housing, education, jobs, healthcare and a well run system of micro-lending for the poor.

For our US administration to be truly effective in its support of Lebanon, it needs to replace the vital services that are offered by Hezbollah, support the Lebanese government and pressure it to impose anti-corruption measurements (Lebanon rated high on corruption by Transparency International).

Talking to pro-West Lebanese on the ground, they tell me that they don't trust that the US administration considers Lebanon a vital issue to US' interests in the region. "Look at Syria. It's run by a dictator and hasn't launched a missile at Israel since 1971 even though Israel occupies the strategic Syrian Golan Heights. We are afraid that the US would rather have another dictator in Lebanon, one leader to deal with, in this case Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah, " said Michael a lawyer in Beirut.

Why should Americans and Europeans be interested in Lebanese politics? It is because Lebanon is a mirror, a proxy turf for the internal conflicts in the Muslim world: between Sunni and Shia, progressive Sunnis/Shia and Sunni/Shia Zealots, and the West looking purely towards its own self-interest.

June 7th Elections in Lebanon Threaten Christians' Existence in the Middle East

That threat does not come from Islam!

It is an existential threat that can jeopardize the progress that Muslim pragmatists (both, Shia and Sunni) have made in the Middle East. In this region of the world where Iran is trying to revive the Persian empire with a new ideology based on their brand of Shiism, power brokers like Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria are forming an unholy alliance that is guaranteed to keep the region behind. On the surface, the message of this alliance appeals to many in the Arab world as the defender of Arab honor against the assault of what is surely viewed as the Zionists and their American sponsors. The disgruntled Arab street that is suppressed by archaic and dysfunctional regimes, is looking for the next step beyond the stalemate of political corruption, high unemployment, poverty and illiteracy. Ahmedinejad has more supporters among Arabs than among Iranians. The Arab street that saw many US administrations siding with Israel and corrupt Arab regimes over many decades, see a hero in the president of Iran.

In Spiral Dynamics integral Memetic speak, the unhealthy Orange value system-(Enterprise) that represented the West's hunger for oil kept Red Arab regimes in power to control the flow of oil. Red-Power centered regimes oppressed their people, offered mediocre education, no jobs and beefed up their own Swiss bank account while the Arab masses in their respective countries lived in abject poverty. Hezbollah, Hamas and even Ahmedinejad represent a much needed Blue value system that gives structure and a sense of purpose while at the same time providing the Red-Pride of identity. Regardless of what the West thinks of these rogue movements, they fill a vacuum that Arab regimes have created themselves by not addressing the needs of their own people while the West looked the other way.

Politics in Lebanon is never local, it is always regional if not international. Lebanese democracy since its inception in 1943 was always a proxy field for the regions' feuds. Now that Khamenei, the Qum spiritual leader of Iran, is aiming to establish Wilayat Al Faquih, or Islamic Imarat in the region, he is achieving his aim through Hezbollah and the popularity of its leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah has an army of 50,000 soldiers ready to take over Lebanon at any minute. However, the Hezbollah leader who studied Sun Tzu' the Art of War knows better than to attack his compatriots and loose his popularity. He masterfully formed an alliance with defeated leaders of Christian, Sunni and Druze clans who were rivals of March 14th movement, the pro-government, pro-West alliance. Hezbollah's new allies are lead by General Michel Aoun the former head of the Lebanese Army who lived in exile for more than 10 years. By creating such alliance, Nasrallah was able to split the Christian leadership between loyalty to the Shia crescent Hezbollah-Syria-Iran under Aoun, and loyalty to a Lebanese identity and pro-Western movement under Sameer Geagea.

With Christians facing discrimination in Egypt, and fleeing Iraq and the West Bank, the survival of Christianity in the Middle East relies on one man winning in this election- Samir Geagea. Geagea, a fearsome Christian militia leader during the 17 year Lebanese war, went through a spiritual and philosophical transformation during his 11 years in prison. The pro-Syrian government at the time of his imprisonment offered him a seat in the cabinet or else he was to be prosecuted for his war crimes and go to jail. Since he was a staunch enemy of the Syrians who occupied Lebanon for more than 30 years he chose the latter.

I myself was never a Geagea supporter, nor a supporter of Aoun. As a resident of the Bekaa, I always felt that the Maronite militias of Beirut and Mount Lebanon did not care about the rest of the country. But this is 2009, and the fight is no longer among local parties and militias in Lebanon. It is the nuclear threat of Iran against peace and progress in the region. These regional and local dynamics that are directly destabilizing Lebanon's democracy and the role that progressive Christians and Muslims play in the development of the country and the whole Middle East.

Nasrallah, speaking at a university graduation ceremony in Beirut said "I tell those who are betting on the [Hezbollah-led] opposition's failure during elections: The resistance that defeated Israel can govern a country that is 100 times larger than Lebanon." He was speaking of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah where Israel destroyed Lebanon's infrastructure and Nasrallah sacrificed the lives of 1000 Lebanese. With Hezbollah's ideology of death and power-god mindset, my brother in Lebanon warns me "prepare to wear a hijab when you arrive to Beirut's airport next time, if Hezbollah wins."

When we talk about elections Lebanon style, we are talking about bought elections. More than 10,000 Lebanese from the diaspora were issued plane tickets mostly by Hezbollah to go to Lebanon and vote for the opposition. A single "paid" vote can represent a full month's salary for some families. Paying for medical supplies, children's private school tuition, and providing a guarrantee for employment is how you get votes in Lebanon. Of course, cash is always king and the candidate who shows the voter the most, wins. I couldn't help but laugh when I read that the envoy of the UN in Lebanon, Michael Williams, assured the only woman candidate from my town Zahle in the Bekaa valley-the hub of Hezbollah- that he will make sure the elections are fully transparent. The woman candidate herself , Magda Breidi a competent lawyer, is paying more than 1 million dollars to secure a seat in the Parliament.

Former Secretary of State Madelein Albright, visited the leaders of March 14th last week to convey the support of the Obama administration, and promised to come back and monitor the elections. Secretary Clinton also made a stop in Lebanon on her way from Iraq to assure Prime Minister Seniora the US' full cooperation with the pro-west movement.

My fear is that the hearts and minds of more than half of the Lebanese are with the opposition. Again, because they are not getting the services they need from their government in a country beaten down by years of wars and constant Syrian-Iranian interference.

Does our US administration understand the Memetic dynamics in Lebanon? Do they understand that voting is not based on principles in most cases, but based on which Zae'em (Feudal leader) puts their son in school, helps them get the loan they need, secures jobs for their college graduates and paves the roads they drive to their house...

Why should the world care about Lebanon in memetic speak or about the progressive Christians and Muslims? It is because Christian thinkers originally brought Blue-Nationalism to the Levant area, and now progressive Christians, Muslims and Druze are the one who are keeping Blue-Nationalism and Orange-Enterprise alive!

Time for the West to understand Memetics and start intervening in the region based on what the region needs developmentally to help it emerge. The responsibility lies squarely on the shoulders of Middle Easterners themselves, but the West must work with them systemically to pry the region out of the hands of these false prophets.