Syrians Break the Barrier of Fear: Is Assad Capable of Enacting Major Change?

“May you rise with the sun to a new Coup D’etat”. This was a common greeting heard on the streets of Damascus during the 1950’s and 60’s. Although politically satirical, this phrase symbolized the frailty of institutions of a fledgling Syrian republic before Hafez Assad became President. Forty years on and the Assad family like no other in the region is poised to leave its indelible mark on a power base that stretches from Iran to the East and Gaza and Lebanon to the West. Today Assad the son under pressure from the uprising in many cities in Syria announced the lifting of emergency laws that have been in place since 1962. Will he be successful in implementing the changes needed before it's too late? Syrians who lived in paralyzing fear for more than four decades might have reached the point of no return.

On a recent visit to Syria while working on an EU project, I met with the now ousted governor of Daraa, Faisal Koulthum who was a high ranking official in the Baath Party. A professor with two PhD degrees from the West, Koulthoum represented the promise of the new leadership under Bashar Assad. I wondered why such an important Baath party figure so close to the president could be appointed to a remote area like Daraa? I suspect now that Assad wanted a loyal ally with a common vision for reform to lead that region. Obviously the problems were beyond poverty in a drought-stricken region, it was more of a political power struggle for leadership between the Old Guard of Assad the father and the educated class of the son.

The uprising that started in the impoverished city of Daraa on March 20th unexpectedly crept into the psyche of freedom loving Syrians all throughout the country and has the potential of toppling the regime and tipping the delicate balance of power from Iran to Israel. Political observers in the West who might have been skeptical of whether real change will come to the whole region, held their collective breath until Syrian youths took to the streets of this drought stricken farming Governate of Daraa. World Leaders who have been very vocal about Libya and Egypt have been unusually silent about Syria. What does the political world know about Syria that the rest of us don’t know? Would a strong condemnation from the West and the Arab League trigger the awakening of the powerful Shia Crescent --Iran, Syria and Hezbollah -- and would such an awakening trigger a region-wide conflict?

Syria is one of four major sphere-of-influence nations in the Arab world. Morocco, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are the other regional powers to which Arab masses gravitate. All the remaining Arab countries are considered client- nations according to Soheil Kash, author of In The Beginning was the Objection: An Introduction to Arab political thought. These four power centers were the ones who manipulated the Arab street and influenced Western interference in the region. Now, it is these four power poles the are leading change in the Arab World. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia announced $40 Billion of economic stimulus to quell any potential uprising. King Muhammad VI of Morocco responded to the demonstrations with a timetable for constitutional reforms. In Egypt the political tug of war between the military establishment and the reformists which include the Muslim Brotherhood leave the country with an uncertain political future. In the last week the wind of change has broken down the door to Syria.

“Our political evolution will be different” tells me an aid to the Governor of Daraa. “ Hafez Assad brought stability to Syria by oppressing the people and enriching the Baath Leadership. The son is trying his hand in reform without the political and military clout that his father had.”

Syria’s regional dominance started when Assad the father came into power in 1970 through a bloodless coup and after the death of Jamal Abdel Nasser the most charismatic politician in modern day Middle East. Assad immediately aligned himself with the Russians to reach strategic parity with Israel which was an ally of the other superpower, the US. His initial ambition had the potential to develop Syria politically and economically, but as things evolved he failed to deliver on his promises. This failure steered much internal unrest but the shell of social secularism he created kept the Alawite minority in top positions of the Baath party. The military became the sole tool that Assad used to make his local and regional presence known from crushing the uprising in Hama to the meddling in Lebanon’s civil war and helping Iran cement Hizbollah’s role as the front line resistance against Israel. These policies stayed in place until Bashar Assad came to power in June 2000. The son was hailed as the reformer, but was unable to break the barriers to the network of high corruption and the economic monopolies that his father’s inner circle had created. Bashar coundn’t even deliver on his promise to eliminate the notorious Mazze jail -- the thought of which still sends shivers down the spine of every Syrian and Lebanese political descendant.

Mohammad, a Syrian archaeologist working on the restoration of one of the most preserved Roman coliseum outside Italy was very outspoken about the current regime. We met when I was in Daraa working on a development project with the EU. Mohammad caught the freedom bug while studying in Italy and he frequently joked about the number of times the Syrian Mukhabarat (secret service) picked him up and hauled him to jail in the middle of the night only to be let go a few days later after his mother begged local authorities for his release.

Criticizing the regime was off limits. Even though Bashar Assad set out to be more progressive than his father, he had to adjust his vision to how much he can do in light of the opposition from the old guard. Many Syrians I met praised him and his educated wife Asma for their approach on Syria’s transition to modernity. Bashar implemented mandatory education for all young people, brought computers to schools and community centers, renovated libraries and more recently opened up the banking system and started the first stock exchange in Syria. While all these changes were happening, they were not met by corresponding inclusion of opposition parties and political reforms that would enable their long-term viability. During a recent interview with al-Arabiya TV network a high ranking supporter of Assad’s reforms was pressed by the interviewer about the lack of progress on the reforms that were promised by the President. When he was pushed to change his standard answer, the truth about what was preventing real change from taking place came out of his mouth in a barrage of repetitive phrases “it is the Old Guard...its the Old Guard..”

Based on my past work in Syria and the study of its value-systems, religions, power structures, and the dynamics of polarity, the chances of the country falling into a sectarian civil war are high. The most pressing issue is the possible defection of powerful Sunni generals who now have orders to shoot at their Sunni brothers.Should this happen the Alawite high command of the Syrian Army could seek the help of Iran and Hezbollah turning an internal conflict into a regional one. In such complex situation the fall of the regime in Syria has far reaching ramifications between the Sunni and Shia crescent and the potential of tipping the balance of power in the region.

In this still unfolding dynamic two scenarios could emerge: the first one would call on Assad to prove worthy of leading his people by immediately curtailing the power of the old guard in any way possible; introduce a specific timetable for reforms and lift emergency laws that have been in effect for 48 years. In this scenario Assad would need to bring the opposition leaders in Syria and abroad to the table, and establish structures and milestones to be achieved by a Syria-specific formula for power sharing. The second scenario, sees the failure of Assad to embark on real reforms where the old guard continues their monopoly over the country’s institutions and economy leading to a prolonged civil war with rippling effects in the region. This will play well into the hands of the Iranian regime that has been pumping billions into Syria. Iran will not sit quietly watching its investment into the Shia crescent go to waste.

The Western world's reluctance to interfere in the affairs of Syria might be well justified right now. However, the US and its allies have to have a systemic strategy that can meet the different scenarios and outcomes of the Syrian uprising.

While in Bosra Al-Sham a village on the outskirts of Daraa, I met many promising high school girls who had a good understanding of what their generation needs to do to help build Syrian society. Learning English was on the top of their list tells me Dalia a young woman who teaches at the girl’s school where most courses are taught in Arabic. Growing up in such a poor region learning English is a ticket out of poverty as it will provide a tool to communicate with tourists and to connect with the world on the Internet. Throughout my travels in Syria, I did not meet a young Syrian who does not exhibit a sense of nationalistic pride.In spite of the political conflicts that seem to hover as a dark cloud over their ambitious minds, they still keep their resolve to build Syria to a 21st century standard.

Tomorrow, Bashar Assad will speak to Syrians, in what his spokesperson called “A very important speech.” How important would this speech be to the heroic Syrian activists who risked their lives --many of them were jailed for several years-- to afford their fellow Syrians freedom of speech, the right to have an attorney defend you before they throw in jail, and the right to have descent jobs. What kind of vision Assad will present to the nation to move it to the 21st century, and what is his time line to implement reform and awaken the capacities that are waiting to burst in young Syrians?

Biden's Lebanon SpeechReinforces the Lack of Foresight in US Foreign Policy

Joe Biden was in Lebanon today following Secretary Clinton's visit to reassure the pro-Western government (March 14 Movement) that the US is their staunch supporter despite the deals the Obama administration is trying to cut with Syria and Iran. The March 14 Movement formed as a reaction to the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the 5 time Prime Minister. It is widely believed in Lebanon and in Sunni Arab countries that Syrian-Iranian intelligence are responsible for Hariri's assassination.

The March 14th Movement fears that Obama will cave in to Syria's demands and grant the Syrians back the power they once had in running Lebanese internal affairs. To the Obama administration that's hell-bent on getting things done at neck-breaking speed, the thinking is that this move will accelerate the Arab Israeli peace process, and pry Syria out of Iran's tight grip. Knowing that Lebanon was the pawn thrown to the Syrians by Reagan in the place of the Golan Heights, the Lebanese are weary that Obama now is pursuing the same policy that will bring back the Syrians for another 30 years. Prying Syria from the hands of Iran is not only a far reaching and unattainable goal, but one that cannot be achieve since the West cannot offer Syria what it is getting from Iran: $1 Billion in subsidized Gas, the manufacturing of Syrian made cars and all the financing they need for supporting terrorism in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. These activities will keep Syria the uncontested power of the Arab world that the West must deal with.The old Western economic incentive to walk away from terrorism model has lost its luster since China is already making better deals and investments in Syria than the US with its current stance.

Speaking at the Presidential Palace in Beirut, Biden declared that "We will evaluate the shape of our assistance program based on the composition of the new government and the policies it advocates," a clear message to the Lebanese not to elect the Hezbollah led opposition.

Since the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri , (a close friend of the Bush family and France's Jacque Chirac) the US military aid to Lebanon has exceeded $400 Million, and more than a Billion in infrastructure and humanitarian aid. The military aid was always a source of dilemma for US administartion: on one hand, having strong military might help keep militias at check. On another, most Lebanese who enlist in the military are Shia with loyalty and a soft spot for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah criticized Biden's visit issuing the following statement "The high American interest in Lebanon raises strong suspicion as to the real reason behind it, especially since it has become a clear and detailed intervention in Lebanese affairs." This statement is coming from the same militia that gets its minute to minute instructions from Iran, and who's offices are adorned with pictures of Ayatollah Khamenei not the Lebanese President.

What Biden and the US administration do not get is that their $1 Billion support to the Lebanese Government is surpassed by Billions of dollars from Iran that are going to maintain Hezbollah's military superiority, direct aid to Hezbollah supporters in the form of housing, education, jobs, healthcare and a well run system of micro-lending for the poor.

For our US administration to be truly effective in its support of Lebanon, it needs to replace the vital services that are offered by Hezbollah, support the Lebanese government and pressure it to impose anti-corruption measurements (Lebanon rated high on corruption by Transparency International).

Talking to pro-West Lebanese on the ground, they tell me that they don't trust that the US administration considers Lebanon a vital issue to US' interests in the region. "Look at Syria. It's run by a dictator and hasn't launched a missile at Israel since 1971 even though Israel occupies the strategic Syrian Golan Heights. We are afraid that the US would rather have another dictator in Lebanon, one leader to deal with, in this case Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah, " said Michael a lawyer in Beirut.

Why should Americans and Europeans be interested in Lebanese politics? It is because Lebanon is a mirror, a proxy turf for the internal conflicts in the Muslim world: between Sunni and Shia, progressive Sunnis/Shia and Sunni/Shia Zealots, and the West looking purely towards its own self-interest.

Kuwait Elections: A Win for Pragmatists, Not Just for Women

As an Arab woman today, I am feeling elated about the four Kuwaiti women who won seats in the Parliament. This is an event that the whole region should be proud of. Four competent, well educated and accomplished women won on their own merit. One of the first MPs is the former Minister of Health Massuma al-Mubarak and the two University professors Salwa al-Jassar and Aseel al-Awadhi in addition to economist Rula Dashti.

Informed by Kuwaitis on the ground, I have been following the events leading up to these elections and searching for the underlying codes that prompted the change to happen. This change included over the years a democratic participation of Bedouin tribes, Shia minority and Islamic extremist movements like HADS (Hizb Al Dusturi Al Islami-Constitutional Islamic Party), Salafis along with the original families of Kuwait who came from Hijaz, and now women. The leaders in Kuwait, influenced by Arab Nationalism (led by Jamal Abdel Nasser at the time) and Kuwaiti visionaries, recognized the change of the dynamics in Kuwaiti society and expanded the representative branch to include members of the new movements. Unlike the other frequently praised democracy of Lebanon which was influenced by the French colonialists -who supported the Maronites- and based purely on sectarianism. The Iranian-Syrian intra-secterian interference in Lebanon is keeping the sectarian parliamentary system in place, and in the process denying Lebanese their quest for a progressive nation.

The women suffrage movement in Kuwait was not initiated by women only, it was supported and led by progressive men as well, who believed in equal participation in public service. It was so recent that they gained the right to vote, yet they historically played a central role in the development of the country.

The Role of Women in Kuwaiti History

A quick look back at the cultural codes that led to creating a stratified democracy in Kuwait, one that fits the value-systems of the state. Along with my readings on this Constitutional Monarchy Emirate to be precise), I was briefed on the critical role that women played in Kuwait since the inception of the Emirate. Kuwaiti men were the early traders of the Arabian peninsula, trading Indian spices, pearls and dates from Iraq with Europe and India. Kuwaiti innovation in the building of ships allowed them to go farther than any traders in the region. Men spent more than 9 months away from home, and women had to be in charge of the extended family which lived together in an extended family compound. These women developed a very effective system to run the large household using humble means to keep the family properly fed, healthy and thriving. Kuwait became a Matriarchal based society out of necessity. With the discovery of oil in the early 50's , girls schools were built next to boys schools and fathers insisted on sending their daughters along with their sons to be educated in Syria, Lebanon and Egypt. Today, many young Kuwaiti men and women are graduating from Ivy League schools and going back to their country to help run the affairs of their country and start successful businesses.

Unlike in any other Emirate or Monarchy in the region, Kuwaiti women became business leaders and were appointed to high ranking positions in the public sector since Kuwait's independence in 1961. Today, Kuwaiti women enjoy equal pay in the private sector as well.

Of course, Kuwait has its long laundry list of problems starting with the "Bedoun" (In Arabic the word means "the ones without") In this case the ones without a Kuwaiti nationality, limited rights of foreign workers and the list goes on... An article written by Next Generation Fellow Sula Al-Naqueeb at our Center for Human Emergence explains further these complex issues in Kuwait.

Women were only granted the right to vote in 2005 after a long struggle with Islamists' influence. This right has long been denied to women for the fear that women in the Bedouin and Islamist communities will be forced by their husbands to vote for the candidate that the male in the family chooses. That will not be a true win to women's suffrage. In 2006 two women ran for parliament and failed. This 2009 election season each of these four women won by a landslide compared to their next opponent. Islamists lost 10 seats and only held on to 11 from the original 21. The seats held by Shiite MPs -- Shia are 1/3 of the population -- increased from 5 to 9. Liberals won 8 seats gaining 1. Analysts say that this parliament might be dissolved if it shows any signs of adopting extremist views. The Emir has done this a few times before when Islamists and few other MPs wanted to prosecute cabinet members on ungrounded basis in most cases, just to disrupt the democratic process and gain fame.

Islamist Defeat

The Islamist defeat marks a significant tipping point in the conflict between Muslim pragmatists/moderates and the zealots in the Middle East. A behind-the-scenes conflict has been brewing the last two years between Nationalists and Progressive Kuwaitis on one side and Islamists on the other (both Sunni and Shia extremists). Here are some events that shifted power away from extemists:

When Imad Mughnyia, one of Hezbollah's notorious leaders, was assassinated in Syria, two Kuwaiti Shiite MPs organized a commemoration in Kuwait. This act aggravated most Kuwaitis since Mugghnia and Hezbollah were responsible for hijacking a Kuwaiti airliner in 1984, and were setting up secret Hezbollah cells in Kuwait.

Other Sunni-Islamists MPs sided with Hamas during the Gaza/Israel war, and demanded that citizens not celebrate the Kuwaiti National day in alliance with Palestinians in Gaza. That would have been respected by all Kuwaitis, even though they have a bad history with the Palestinians who sided with Saddam Hussein during his invasion of Kuwait in 1990. However, what tipped the situation was that those same Islamists who forbad Kuwaitis from celebrating their national day in the streets, were secretly filmed dancing the Dabkeh (traditional Palestinian dance) with Hamas supporters. (This was seen as hypocritical since Islamists shun any type of music or dance considering it haram -- forbidden). Kuwaitis who saw this footage on Scope Satellite TV, called in the TV's talk shows and expressed their anger at Islamists. One woman suggested that all Kuwaitis take to the streets and their rooftops and shout "Allah Akbar" in objection to Islamists hijaking their country, an act they once performed in defiance of Saddam's invading forces. The next day many people did just that. This same act of defiance against the internal invasion of Kuwaiti freedoms eventually led to the unseating of extremist MP's.


Indigenous Exercise in Democracy

Why am I mentioning these details? In a region in danger of falling prey to extreme ideologies spun by the likes of Al-Qaeda, Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran, and a failed attempt at democratization by the West, this indigenous exercise in democracy is a model that could be fostered in other parts of the Middle East and the Muslim World and a worthy lesson in Memetics for the West.

For a two week period before the elections, the Emir opened his palace to the people, asking them to share their suggestions for much-needed changes in the distribution of electoral regions. The Emir, like every ruler before him, kept an age old tradition in opening his palace, and visiting the Dywanyias of the founding families of Kuwait. Dywanyia is an added section to many homes in Kuwait where men gather to discuss politics, religion, social issues, poetry, and philosophy -- depending on the inclination of the household. For the first time in recent history, women sought the all-male Dywanyia as one of their platforms to present their agendas. What started as a daring attempt by 2 women candidates in 2005 grew into a synergistic movement in 2009. Massuma Al-Mubarak was surprised to see that many Dywanyias took the initiative to organize events for her. In most other Dywanyias she had to ask. A patriotic super-ordinate goal prompted men to open their sacred Dywanyias to women!

The Emir's public space and the changing roles of Dywanyias are a great model of how Kuwait kept its tribal traditions and included them to serve the progress of the country.

When I read in Western newspapers an open or underlying criticism of the fact that the Emir still appoints the cabinet, I cringe at the sheer ignorance of cultural codes that we so frequently miss in diagnosing young democracies. Kuwait's Parliament is one of the strongest democratic bodies in the Arab world, but when it is manipulated by Islamists who have been gaining more power after the Iraq war, it becomes imperative for the ruler to have the last word. Moreover, this ruler has a system of accountability inside Kuwait represented by the heads of the different clans. Now who wouldn't want a democracy a la Kuwait in Afghanistan?

June 7th Elections in Lebanon Threaten Christians' Existence in the Middle East

That threat does not come from Islam!

It is an existential threat that can jeopardize the progress that Muslim pragmatists (both, Shia and Sunni) have made in the Middle East. In this region of the world where Iran is trying to revive the Persian empire with a new ideology based on their brand of Shiism, power brokers like Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria are forming an unholy alliance that is guaranteed to keep the region behind. On the surface, the message of this alliance appeals to many in the Arab world as the defender of Arab honor against the assault of what is surely viewed as the Zionists and their American sponsors. The disgruntled Arab street that is suppressed by archaic and dysfunctional regimes, is looking for the next step beyond the stalemate of political corruption, high unemployment, poverty and illiteracy. Ahmedinejad has more supporters among Arabs than among Iranians. The Arab street that saw many US administrations siding with Israel and corrupt Arab regimes over many decades, see a hero in the president of Iran.

In Spiral Dynamics integral Memetic speak, the unhealthy Orange value system-(Enterprise) that represented the West's hunger for oil kept Red Arab regimes in power to control the flow of oil. Red-Power centered regimes oppressed their people, offered mediocre education, no jobs and beefed up their own Swiss bank account while the Arab masses in their respective countries lived in abject poverty. Hezbollah, Hamas and even Ahmedinejad represent a much needed Blue value system that gives structure and a sense of purpose while at the same time providing the Red-Pride of identity. Regardless of what the West thinks of these rogue movements, they fill a vacuum that Arab regimes have created themselves by not addressing the needs of their own people while the West looked the other way.

Politics in Lebanon is never local, it is always regional if not international. Lebanese democracy since its inception in 1943 was always a proxy field for the regions' feuds. Now that Khamenei, the Qum spiritual leader of Iran, is aiming to establish Wilayat Al Faquih, or Islamic Imarat in the region, he is achieving his aim through Hezbollah and the popularity of its leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah has an army of 50,000 soldiers ready to take over Lebanon at any minute. However, the Hezbollah leader who studied Sun Tzu' the Art of War knows better than to attack his compatriots and loose his popularity. He masterfully formed an alliance with defeated leaders of Christian, Sunni and Druze clans who were rivals of March 14th movement, the pro-government, pro-West alliance. Hezbollah's new allies are lead by General Michel Aoun the former head of the Lebanese Army who lived in exile for more than 10 years. By creating such alliance, Nasrallah was able to split the Christian leadership between loyalty to the Shia crescent Hezbollah-Syria-Iran under Aoun, and loyalty to a Lebanese identity and pro-Western movement under Sameer Geagea.

With Christians facing discrimination in Egypt, and fleeing Iraq and the West Bank, the survival of Christianity in the Middle East relies on one man winning in this election- Samir Geagea. Geagea, a fearsome Christian militia leader during the 17 year Lebanese war, went through a spiritual and philosophical transformation during his 11 years in prison. The pro-Syrian government at the time of his imprisonment offered him a seat in the cabinet or else he was to be prosecuted for his war crimes and go to jail. Since he was a staunch enemy of the Syrians who occupied Lebanon for more than 30 years he chose the latter.

I myself was never a Geagea supporter, nor a supporter of Aoun. As a resident of the Bekaa, I always felt that the Maronite militias of Beirut and Mount Lebanon did not care about the rest of the country. But this is 2009, and the fight is no longer among local parties and militias in Lebanon. It is the nuclear threat of Iran against peace and progress in the region. These regional and local dynamics that are directly destabilizing Lebanon's democracy and the role that progressive Christians and Muslims play in the development of the country and the whole Middle East.

Nasrallah, speaking at a university graduation ceremony in Beirut said "I tell those who are betting on the [Hezbollah-led] opposition's failure during elections: The resistance that defeated Israel can govern a country that is 100 times larger than Lebanon." He was speaking of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah where Israel destroyed Lebanon's infrastructure and Nasrallah sacrificed the lives of 1000 Lebanese. With Hezbollah's ideology of death and power-god mindset, my brother in Lebanon warns me "prepare to wear a hijab when you arrive to Beirut's airport next time, if Hezbollah wins."

When we talk about elections Lebanon style, we are talking about bought elections. More than 10,000 Lebanese from the diaspora were issued plane tickets mostly by Hezbollah to go to Lebanon and vote for the opposition. A single "paid" vote can represent a full month's salary for some families. Paying for medical supplies, children's private school tuition, and providing a guarrantee for employment is how you get votes in Lebanon. Of course, cash is always king and the candidate who shows the voter the most, wins. I couldn't help but laugh when I read that the envoy of the UN in Lebanon, Michael Williams, assured the only woman candidate from my town Zahle in the Bekaa valley-the hub of Hezbollah- that he will make sure the elections are fully transparent. The woman candidate herself , Magda Breidi a competent lawyer, is paying more than 1 million dollars to secure a seat in the Parliament.

Former Secretary of State Madelein Albright, visited the leaders of March 14th last week to convey the support of the Obama administration, and promised to come back and monitor the elections. Secretary Clinton also made a stop in Lebanon on her way from Iraq to assure Prime Minister Seniora the US' full cooperation with the pro-west movement.

My fear is that the hearts and minds of more than half of the Lebanese are with the opposition. Again, because they are not getting the services they need from their government in a country beaten down by years of wars and constant Syrian-Iranian interference.

Does our US administration understand the Memetic dynamics in Lebanon? Do they understand that voting is not based on principles in most cases, but based on which Zae'em (Feudal leader) puts their son in school, helps them get the loan they need, secures jobs for their college graduates and paves the roads they drive to their house...

Why should the world care about Lebanon in memetic speak or about the progressive Christians and Muslims? It is because Christian thinkers originally brought Blue-Nationalism to the Levant area, and now progressive Christians, Muslims and Druze are the one who are keeping Blue-Nationalism and Orange-Enterprise alive!

Time for the West to understand Memetics and start intervening in the region based on what the region needs developmentally to help it emerge. The responsibility lies squarely on the shoulders of Middle Easterners themselves, but the West must work with them systemically to pry the region out of the hands of these false prophets.