Emerging Patterns in the Middle East-Published in Integral Leadership Review

A previously posted blog was expanded into an article published in Integral Leadership Review, the leading publication in the new field of Integral studies.

This article is an attempt to provide an analysis of patterns of dissonance, societal downshifts and emergence in the Middle East, with a focus on Lebanon and Iran. http://integralleadershipreview.com/archives/2009-10/2009-10-11-article-maalouf.php

Emerging Patterns in the Middle East: The Thirty Year Itch for Lebanon and Iran

Elza S. Maalouf

My first year of Law School in Lebanon, was a year to remember. I recall the heated political discussions I had with Shia students and professors alike over many long hours ranging from discussing the merits of Marxism to laws on women’s rights in Lebanon and the role religion plays in law. These same students who I played tennis with would return the following year with the trademark Islamist beard and buttoned-up white shirt and refused to shake my hand or establish any eye contact. It was in that academic setting that I witnessed the birth of the Hezbollah movement created and financed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. This new generation of educated Shia was empowered by Khomieni’s Islamic revolution and the hope of shaping Lebanon’s national identity into a “just” model of an Islamic Emirate. Many years have passed since and the model for both countries is now going through unprecedented challenges.

The Search For National Identity

On March 14th, 2005 one million Lebanese citizens gathered in Beirut’s Martyr Square, the symbol of Lebanon's 1943 Independence from France. They were protesting against the presence of Syrian forces in Lebanon. The Cedar Revolution, as it was called, ended the 30 year Syrian occupation of Lebanon which started in 1975 when Syrian Forces entered Lebanon as peacekeepers to protect the Christians and crush the Palestinian dominance in Beirut. Two years later, the Syrians managed to reignite the sectarian civil war by siding with the Palestinians when it served their regional interests then turned around and bombed them again when they felt they were out of control. In the absence of strong Lebanese leaders, the Syrians dominated every aspect of Lebanese life for 30 years. The one million Lebanese of the March 14th Cedar Rebellion were not only rejecting the Syrian occupation of their country, but also one of the worst economic conditions in the Middle East, which was brought about by one of the highest levels of corruption in the world. This was orchestrated by Lebanese power lords under the protection of their masters in Damascus.

This past June in Iran, one million Iranians gathered in Tehran’s Freedom Square to protest the 'sham' elections and demand their voices be heard. "Tehran Rising" is happening 30 years after Ayatollah Khomeini and a number of visionary young leaders who rejected the Shah’s elitist rule in 1979 and established the Islamic Republic of Iran. Mir Ali Mousavi had a role to play in that revolution, and a bloody one at that. His supporters, more so than Mousavi himself, currently are not fighting the principles of the revolution; they are fighting the collapse of Iran’s economy, corruption, and incompetency in government.

Memetic Side View of Both Cultures

As I looked, through my developmental lenses, at both events and the cultures that produced them, the patterns of emergence that are unique to that part of the world in the 21st century were becoming clear. Beirut, Tehran, Baghdad, Kabul, and Cairo were some of the most progressive capital cities in the region at the dawn of the 20th Century. Those cities were compared to Paris in culture, modernity and uniqueness. However, such notions of freedom and progress were almost exclusive to the capital cities, and rarely spread to the rest of the country. Inhabitants of these capitals had access to Western education and progressive schools of thought while their compatriots lagged behind in the darkness of tribal norms and feudal dominance. A split cultural personality, we may say. That tension between modernity centered in the capitals. The strong hold of tribalism, poverty and illiteracy in the rest of the country created a large gap that eventually ended up being the primary cause of each culture's downshift.

In Clare W. Graves “Emergent Cyclic Double-Helix Model of Adult Biopsychosocial Systems" theory that forms the basis for Dr. Beck’s Spiral Dynamics, the Double Helix gives us the key to evolution in cultures—as life conditions change, biopsychosocial systems within people and cultures have the potential to change to find solutions to their existential problems. Naturally, when people find solutions to their problems they create new ones, a process Graves elegantly called "the never ending quest." Let's explore the particular case study of Lebanon and Iran.

THE PATTERNS:

1. Asymmetry within the Culture: Tehran and Beirut became beacons of (closed loop) progress that stayed within the confines of the city, and communicated outward with the Western world. This was a complete disconnect from the rest of the country. Anybody who sought a progressive life moved into the respective cities, rather than having a strong central government with long-term development plans that bring progress to rural areas. That caused a gap in values between what was seen as elite, and the rest of the country.

2. Skipping Stages of Development: the principles of cultural development are similar to human development. Cultures cannot skip a stage; there are rites of passage that contribute to building cultural capacities similar to human capacities. In this case, in absence of institutions (public and private) that are in charge of designing and implementing long term developmental strategies for the whole country the rural country side would remain set back in time. This phenomenon left a gaping hole that invited extremist ideological groups to take control of neglected areas. Imagine France moving abruptly from monarchy to a capitalistic society ruled by an economic elite without going through the Revolution of "Liberty, Fraternity, Equality" that established the basis for a representative form of government where citizens are equal under the law. A principle that is still missing in the whole Middle East including Israel.

3. Extremists Brand of Islam became the Answer: Marxist brand of nationalism that was spread by Egypt's Nasser in the 1950s to bridge the gap between the haves and have-nots, was transformed into an Islamist brand of nationalism in both Lebanon and Iran. Khomeini's Islamic revolution gained ground with the disadvantaged in Iran, especially the ambitious young generation that supported the needed change with vengeance. The same happened in Lebanon. Actually, Hezbollah's previous name was The Disadvantaged, "Al Mahroumeen." Young Shia men and women were the disenfranchised majority in Lebanon, neglected by the government and especially by their own Shia oligarchs.

4. Divided Loyalties: In both countries, while one million people asked to break away from extremist ideology, another million took to the streets in support of the extremists. Contrary to what the West thinks, these are not paid demonstrators. They have shared values and shared interests with the leaders of extremist movements. In part, they wish to preserve their jobs in cultures where there are few jobs and in another they do support the continued search for national identity that’s not defined by Western influence.

5. Corruption: In Lebanon's case, the Syrian regime transformed a state, already ravaged with corruption and Barteel (primitive form of bribery) into a restriction-free zone for its illegal activities from drug trafficking to money laundering and out-right stealing through their Lebanese agents like Hezbollah and its Sunni and Christian cohorts. In Iran, the promise of an egalitarian Islamic Republic (Marxist style) turned into a repressive and incompetent regime where bureaucrats were replaced by the regime's cronies who lacked the skills needed to perform critical government functions. The regime guaranteed loyal following by supporters by continuing these hiring practices that eventually took hold of most government institutions. As a result, Ahmedinejad was elected by a high percentage of Iranians to counteract the Aytullahs turned oligarchs like Rafsanjani and politicians like Mousavi.

6. Lack of Opportunities: In a 2007 report UNICEF gave this grim account of Lebanon's dire situation: "Lebanese youth below the age of 25 years, who constitute more than half of the population, suffer from weak integration in the social environment and from the economic crisis. They are faced by unemployment due to lack of jobs, difficulty of getting into the work cycle and difficulty of securing a house or a place to live." The same goes for Iran where more than half of the population is under 25, suffering the wrath of an incompetent government, high unemployment rates and rampant poverty.

7. The Wisdom of the Crowd Surpassed that of their Leaders: The discontent with the extremists suppression reached critical mass and empowered the reform crowds in both countries to lead their leaders; not the other way around. Mousavi and March 14th leaders became mere symbols of forward progress. They now have to implement the changes dictated by the collective intelligence.

8. Dissonance: Social tension and unrest is the critical wave through which the evolutionary pulse becomes alive. What is happening now in Iran and still going on behind the scenes in Lebanon is the dissonance needed for emergence to happen. Since the start of the unrest in Iran Ayatollah Khamenei blamed it all on Israeli and American spies, and refuses to surrender to the will of the people. These tactics have proven successful in a region ravaged by internal dysfunction and a distrusting image of Western interference as Ahmadinajad gets sworn in for a second term. In Lebanon, the Hezbollah coalition after being defeated politically is now mobilizing its military, PR and Intelligence machine to keep holding Lebanon hostage. Their propagandist argument is that the Lebanese military is not ready to defend the country against the “Zionist Enemy.”

Conditions for Change

These patterns have taken 30 years to unfold in Iran and Lebanon. Do I expect that every country in the Middle East will take 30 years to emerge? Of course not. Do I expect immediate change to take hold just because Bush is gone? Of course not. Are we seeing signs of an evolutionary change? Absolutely. Graves-Beck theory sites the following six conditions for change:

• POTENTIAL in the brain syndicate of the culture

• SOLUTIONS for problems at present level

• DISSONANCE about conditions & future

• BARRIERS to change identified & managed

• INSIGHT into alternative forms & means

• CONSOLIDATION & SUPPORT in transition

Strong aspects of these conditions are present in both cultures. Change will not only affect Lebanon and Iran, but will culminate in a tipping point that will trigger change in the region. Over the decades, many factors influenced the underlying codes that cause change starting in recent history with the Israel/Palestine conflict, dictatorships, Marxism, the Cold War, Western interference, oil and many other factors. To the dismay of many, I have to give George Bush credit for focusing on what he called 'democracy' in the Middle East. Bush’s approach did not have a systemic strategy, but aimed at securing (not controlling) the oil reserve in the region. His hawkish Wild West-style philosophy created more dissonance, which is as I mentioned before is a critical condition for change. The pragmatists in the Middle East snatched the opportunity to distance themselves from the “American enemy” and raise their voices either against him or against their country’s oppressive regimes.

How the US can Play a Sustainable Role

As President Obama is now trying to give legitimacy to American interference in the region, he is seen as both, friendly and weak. His speech in Egypt termed historic by Western media, received mixed reviews in the Muslim world. Extremists adopted a wait-and-see attitude while progressives found many good points in his call for mutual respect and promise of no meddling. These same progressive thinking academic and community leaders were also critical of his constant reference to his Muslim background and quoting the Quran when the issues of extremism, poverty and oppression are not only about Islam, but are part and parcel of US support of repressive regimes. The hope speech ran aground in a region facing insurmountable challenges that first world countries can’t even fathom. Millions of Egyptian children on the streets of Cairo go to sleep hungry every night while their leaders continue to squander billions in US aid. The same is repeated throughout the Muslim world with only a few exceptions.

US policy cannot afford to be hawkish like Bush was on one end or idealistic like the Obama Administration is being on the other. It has to strike a balance—in actions on the ground and not in rhetoric—between pressuring the authoritarian regimes to reform and withholding both financial and military aid. A deeper US commitment will require a shift from the current paradigm of what is best for us to what is best for a globally interwoven world that takes into consideration the Memetic contours and patterns of emergence in the region.

---

Elza S. Maalouf is an Arab-American futurist and cultural development specialist focusing her work on cultural, business and political reform in the Arab world. As one of the foremost futurists and expert in Memetics of the Middle East, Elza was named one of today’s brightest minds. She is co-founder of the Center for Human Emergence Middle East, a think tank that emphasizes the scientific understanding of cultures through the prism of the "bio-psycho-social systems" framework of Clare W. Graves and his colleague and successor Dr. Don Beck. She has pioneered the Integral movement and the application of Spiral Dynamics integral in the Middle East. In her iPolitics blog, Maalouf examines Memetic patterns of emergence in the region and offers analysis of the anatomy of conflicts in the Muslim World.

Her firm Integral Insights Consulting (IIC) is advising business leaders on uniquely Arab integral design for business in the post-oil era with a focus on their most precious resource, their Gen Y.

Kuwait Elections: A Win for Pragmatists, Not Just for Women

As an Arab woman today, I am feeling elated about the four Kuwaiti women who won seats in the Parliament. This is an event that the whole region should be proud of. Four competent, well educated and accomplished women won on their own merit. One of the first MPs is the former Minister of Health Massuma al-Mubarak and the two University professors Salwa al-Jassar and Aseel al-Awadhi in addition to economist Rula Dashti.

Informed by Kuwaitis on the ground, I have been following the events leading up to these elections and searching for the underlying codes that prompted the change to happen. This change included over the years a democratic participation of Bedouin tribes, Shia minority and Islamic extremist movements like HADS (Hizb Al Dusturi Al Islami-Constitutional Islamic Party), Salafis along with the original families of Kuwait who came from Hijaz, and now women. The leaders in Kuwait, influenced by Arab Nationalism (led by Jamal Abdel Nasser at the time) and Kuwaiti visionaries, recognized the change of the dynamics in Kuwaiti society and expanded the representative branch to include members of the new movements. Unlike the other frequently praised democracy of Lebanon which was influenced by the French colonialists -who supported the Maronites- and based purely on sectarianism. The Iranian-Syrian intra-secterian interference in Lebanon is keeping the sectarian parliamentary system in place, and in the process denying Lebanese their quest for a progressive nation.

The women suffrage movement in Kuwait was not initiated by women only, it was supported and led by progressive men as well, who believed in equal participation in public service. It was so recent that they gained the right to vote, yet they historically played a central role in the development of the country.

The Role of Women in Kuwaiti History

A quick look back at the cultural codes that led to creating a stratified democracy in Kuwait, one that fits the value-systems of the state. Along with my readings on this Constitutional Monarchy Emirate to be precise), I was briefed on the critical role that women played in Kuwait since the inception of the Emirate. Kuwaiti men were the early traders of the Arabian peninsula, trading Indian spices, pearls and dates from Iraq with Europe and India. Kuwaiti innovation in the building of ships allowed them to go farther than any traders in the region. Men spent more than 9 months away from home, and women had to be in charge of the extended family which lived together in an extended family compound. These women developed a very effective system to run the large household using humble means to keep the family properly fed, healthy and thriving. Kuwait became a Matriarchal based society out of necessity. With the discovery of oil in the early 50's , girls schools were built next to boys schools and fathers insisted on sending their daughters along with their sons to be educated in Syria, Lebanon and Egypt. Today, many young Kuwaiti men and women are graduating from Ivy League schools and going back to their country to help run the affairs of their country and start successful businesses.

Unlike in any other Emirate or Monarchy in the region, Kuwaiti women became business leaders and were appointed to high ranking positions in the public sector since Kuwait's independence in 1961. Today, Kuwaiti women enjoy equal pay in the private sector as well.

Of course, Kuwait has its long laundry list of problems starting with the "Bedoun" (In Arabic the word means "the ones without") In this case the ones without a Kuwaiti nationality, limited rights of foreign workers and the list goes on... An article written by Next Generation Fellow Sula Al-Naqueeb at our Center for Human Emergence explains further these complex issues in Kuwait.

Women were only granted the right to vote in 2005 after a long struggle with Islamists' influence. This right has long been denied to women for the fear that women in the Bedouin and Islamist communities will be forced by their husbands to vote for the candidate that the male in the family chooses. That will not be a true win to women's suffrage. In 2006 two women ran for parliament and failed. This 2009 election season each of these four women won by a landslide compared to their next opponent. Islamists lost 10 seats and only held on to 11 from the original 21. The seats held by Shiite MPs -- Shia are 1/3 of the population -- increased from 5 to 9. Liberals won 8 seats gaining 1. Analysts say that this parliament might be dissolved if it shows any signs of adopting extremist views. The Emir has done this a few times before when Islamists and few other MPs wanted to prosecute cabinet members on ungrounded basis in most cases, just to disrupt the democratic process and gain fame.

Islamist Defeat

The Islamist defeat marks a significant tipping point in the conflict between Muslim pragmatists/moderates and the zealots in the Middle East. A behind-the-scenes conflict has been brewing the last two years between Nationalists and Progressive Kuwaitis on one side and Islamists on the other (both Sunni and Shia extremists). Here are some events that shifted power away from extemists:

When Imad Mughnyia, one of Hezbollah's notorious leaders, was assassinated in Syria, two Kuwaiti Shiite MPs organized a commemoration in Kuwait. This act aggravated most Kuwaitis since Mugghnia and Hezbollah were responsible for hijacking a Kuwaiti airliner in 1984, and were setting up secret Hezbollah cells in Kuwait.

Other Sunni-Islamists MPs sided with Hamas during the Gaza/Israel war, and demanded that citizens not celebrate the Kuwaiti National day in alliance with Palestinians in Gaza. That would have been respected by all Kuwaitis, even though they have a bad history with the Palestinians who sided with Saddam Hussein during his invasion of Kuwait in 1990. However, what tipped the situation was that those same Islamists who forbad Kuwaitis from celebrating their national day in the streets, were secretly filmed dancing the Dabkeh (traditional Palestinian dance) with Hamas supporters. (This was seen as hypocritical since Islamists shun any type of music or dance considering it haram -- forbidden). Kuwaitis who saw this footage on Scope Satellite TV, called in the TV's talk shows and expressed their anger at Islamists. One woman suggested that all Kuwaitis take to the streets and their rooftops and shout "Allah Akbar" in objection to Islamists hijaking their country, an act they once performed in defiance of Saddam's invading forces. The next day many people did just that. This same act of defiance against the internal invasion of Kuwaiti freedoms eventually led to the unseating of extremist MP's.


Indigenous Exercise in Democracy

Why am I mentioning these details? In a region in danger of falling prey to extreme ideologies spun by the likes of Al-Qaeda, Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran, and a failed attempt at democratization by the West, this indigenous exercise in democracy is a model that could be fostered in other parts of the Middle East and the Muslim World and a worthy lesson in Memetics for the West.

For a two week period before the elections, the Emir opened his palace to the people, asking them to share their suggestions for much-needed changes in the distribution of electoral regions. The Emir, like every ruler before him, kept an age old tradition in opening his palace, and visiting the Dywanyias of the founding families of Kuwait. Dywanyia is an added section to many homes in Kuwait where men gather to discuss politics, religion, social issues, poetry, and philosophy -- depending on the inclination of the household. For the first time in recent history, women sought the all-male Dywanyia as one of their platforms to present their agendas. What started as a daring attempt by 2 women candidates in 2005 grew into a synergistic movement in 2009. Massuma Al-Mubarak was surprised to see that many Dywanyias took the initiative to organize events for her. In most other Dywanyias she had to ask. A patriotic super-ordinate goal prompted men to open their sacred Dywanyias to women!

The Emir's public space and the changing roles of Dywanyias are a great model of how Kuwait kept its tribal traditions and included them to serve the progress of the country.

When I read in Western newspapers an open or underlying criticism of the fact that the Emir still appoints the cabinet, I cringe at the sheer ignorance of cultural codes that we so frequently miss in diagnosing young democracies. Kuwait's Parliament is one of the strongest democratic bodies in the Arab world, but when it is manipulated by Islamists who have been gaining more power after the Iraq war, it becomes imperative for the ruler to have the last word. Moreover, this ruler has a system of accountability inside Kuwait represented by the heads of the different clans. Now who wouldn't want a democracy a la Kuwait in Afghanistan?

My Interview about the Future of Middle East with EnlightenNext: WIE Unbound

WIE Unbound delivers fresh weekly audios, videos, and downloadable MP3s featuring the leading-edge visionaries, mystics, scientists, philosophers, and activists found in the pages of EnlightenNext magazine. http://www.enlightennext.org/magazine/unbound/home.asp?ifr=hp-unb

This interview was part of a several interviews with Futurists.

Speaking with Futurists: Part III –
The Future of the Middle East

"In this interview with EnlightenNext senior editor Elizabeth Debold, Elza Maalouf outlines some of the most promising trends she sees emerging across the Muslim world." You can read part and listen to a part of the interview here: http://www.enlightennext.org/magazine/unbound/media.asp?id=268

Presenting Integral Politics Two Years Since My Last post

I took time away from this blog after the Lebanon 2006 war. Meanwhile, I expanded the reach of the work the Center For Human Emergence Middle East which I had co-founded with Dr. Don Beck the prominent geo-political expert and the chief architect of South Africa's transition from apartheid . I am now leading the Integral Movement in the Middle East by continuing to work with Arab scholars, academics, political and business leaders. I am fully engaged in major and exciting initiatives all throughout the Middle East, from Palestine and Syria to Dubai and Kuwait...

In the upcoming blogs I will offer integral analysis on the West's policies in the Middle East and will show the complex connectivity of these two worlds in the context of the shifting centers of power in the world.