Monday, August 14, 2006

A Lose-Lose Situation

Elza S. Maalouf
The third lose is for the Bush administration who "was closely involved in the planning of Israel's retaliatory attacks," according to the New Yorker'saugustt 14 article by Seymour Hersh. Hezbollah was considered a threat to Israel's northern borders safety and Israel was watching the militant group reinforce its military infrastructure in Southern Lebanon with great concern. There is no doubt that Isarel had military plans in place to hit Hezbollah. However this article shows that these plans were approved and encouraged by the US administrationn who thought that a full blown attack on Hezbollah inLebanonn can "serve as a prelude to a potential American premptive attack to destroy Iran's nuclear installations." Now the US has to think about a new strategy to deal with Iran's defiance and nuclear programs. The one they had in mind will not work now! Israel and the US miscalculated the military power of Hezbollah as well as the Lebanese unwillingness to turn against Hezbollah.

Hezbollah proved to be stronger than Israel thought a militia would be, and gathered the support of some of the Lebanese people and the Arab street. Many Israeli soldiers were killed and the Arab media praised the 'success' of the first Arab military power to defeat Israel. Hezbollah and its supporters think they won...

Israel also thinks it won?! They managed to weaken Hezbollah's stronghold in Southern Lebanon and Dahieh and parts of the Bekaa. Their initial stated goal to have a legitimate Lebanese military power at the border will come true if the resolution 1701 will be implemented.

Hezbollah lost and Israel lostNotnot to mention the shameful Human tragedy.

The Lebanese government who failed to disarm Hezbollah before is now armed by the UN resolution 1701 that was accepted by the Hezbollah ministers in the cabinet. However Prime Minister Saniora canceled today's meeting in which the cabinet was supposed to discuss the disarming of Hezbollah south of the Litani river. Hezbollah sent a message with Speaker Berri that the Shia militia refuses to disarm. Saniora refusing to compromise, cancels the meeting!

Israel is having internal troubles of its own where the extreme right is gaining grounds and Olmert's cabinet is loosing popularity. Their plan to destroy Lebanon's infrastructure in order to turn the Lebanese against Hezbollah did not work. What Israel did not realize is that its destruction of a fragile infrastructure and the loss of innocent civilians aggravated even the most moderates of Lebanese. And, No...Lebanese cannot turn against Hezbollah at this point; the Shia militia is only armed militia in Lebanon, no one can fight it at this point. No Lebanese wants to start another civil war especially that the country has been bleeding for more than 30 years.

Is there a lesson for the administration to learn here? of course. Do not Bomb an Ideology!!!

The shock and awe strategy Israel and the US used in Beirut to send a message to Iran, was received by Iran who sent a message back through successfully testing with Hezbollah a number of Iranian-made advanced weapons systems.

In a lose-lose-lose situation the world has to wise up!


(Here's a link to Seymour Hersh's New Yorker article :http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060821fa_fact )

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