Backroom Deals Leading to a Lose-Lose Situation
Elza S. Maalouf
The assassination of Prime Minster Hariri on February 14th, 2005 triggered a powerful chain of events. It unleashed the fury of the repressed people of Lebanon and attracted the attention of the International community, especially the US administration who is on a democracy crusade in the Middle East.
The Syrians withdrew in April 2005 under popular and international pressure. For the 1st time in Lebanon’s modern history, the various Lebanese factions under the Leadership of Nabih Berry (Shia Speaker of Parliament, head of Shia Amal movement) called for a decisive Lebanese National Dialogue to shape the future of democracy in the country. For more than 6 months former militia heads and clan leaders who were designated by their people to speak on their behalf, gathered to resolve deep rooted issues that are challenging the newly liberated country. Just like debates of such magnitude, the consensus was to discuss the most pressing issues first: diplomatic relations with Syria, and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Other issues, although vital for the state of the Nation, were not as pressing as these two.
“A State inside a State”
Hezbollah, the most powerful party in Lebanon, and the only armed party, resisted any notion of disarmament. After all it has become ‘a state inside a state’ and gained more support from Syria who grudgingly left Lebanon. In an infamous conversation with PM Hariri before his death, Syrian president warned Hariri that he will “turn Lebanon and Beirut upside down” if Syria is pushed out of Lebanon. And here we are…
The participants in the National Dialogue aiming for a unified Lebanon and one sovereign government/one Lebanese army, tried to negotiate the disarmament with Hassan Nasrallah, to no avail. Many of them spoke openly about their opposition to Hezbollah’s armed faction. Two weeks before the sad events on July 12th, negotiation came to a halt. It is said that some leaders in the National Dialogue, sensing that Hezbollah is cornered and might retaliate, asked Nasrallah to postpone any actions that might harm Lebanon’s tourist season and re-building process till the end of summer. They tried to gain time to hopefully influence the process in power centers outside Lebanon: United States, Syria, Iran….
Did the Lebanese government hit a brick wall and made a backroom deal with the US? Nasrallah sure seems to imply that in his latest TV address on July 25th, where he spoke as the head of a State omitting the mention of a Lebanese sovereign government and considering the ‘resistance’ the spokesperson and defender of Lebanon.
Did Israel plan this offensive on Lebanon after Syria’s withdrawal, Hamas’ victory and the upheaval in Ghaza? It sure did and showed the plans to invade Lebanon to generals in the Pentagon a year ago, and waited for Hezbollah to provoke the prepared offensive. Hezbollah obliged timing its actions around the G8 summit in Russia.
Syria is the primary benefactor in this messy situation. With its influence on Hezbollah, Syria is amassing negotiation points it can bring to the table when negotiating indirectly with the United States.
Israel is becoming aware by the day that it cannot ‘win the war’ on Hezbollah. They started by asking for 20 km inside the Lebanese borders, went down to 7 km and now probably 2 km. The battles in Bint Jbeil and Maroun AlRas surprised the army and boasted the rhetoric of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is now defining victory as simple survivor calling every child and elderly dying ‘Shaheed’( martyr)
“Lebanon’s wars serve other countries... never the Lebanese”
Lebanon is such a frail country where decision-makers have to be like precision driven engineers building in dangerous earthquake regions. The Lebanese government is trying to keep unity and avoid a civil war between the various factions. Lebanon unlike any other Arab country and unlike Israel, has a multi-religion based society of more than 18 sects, and most of them are represented in the government. With such an unusual make up, it is easy for external parties to influence factions in Lebanon, train them and use them for their own benefit. Israel did that with the Maronites in the 80s, Iran with Hezbollah and Syria with any corrupt party and leader they can get.
The bottom line is that Syria, Iran, Israel and the US are playing an old dirty game on Lebanese soil and the Lebanese people are paying the price. 20 years later, same story different day!
The Syrians withdrew in April 2005 under popular and international pressure. For the 1st time in Lebanon’s modern history, the various Lebanese factions under the Leadership of Nabih Berry (Shia Speaker of Parliament, head of Shia Amal movement) called for a decisive Lebanese National Dialogue to shape the future of democracy in the country. For more than 6 months former militia heads and clan leaders who were designated by their people to speak on their behalf, gathered to resolve deep rooted issues that are challenging the newly liberated country. Just like debates of such magnitude, the consensus was to discuss the most pressing issues first: diplomatic relations with Syria, and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Other issues, although vital for the state of the Nation, were not as pressing as these two.
“A State inside a State”
Hezbollah, the most powerful party in Lebanon, and the only armed party, resisted any notion of disarmament. After all it has become ‘a state inside a state’ and gained more support from Syria who grudgingly left Lebanon. In an infamous conversation with PM Hariri before his death, Syrian president warned Hariri that he will “turn Lebanon and Beirut upside down” if Syria is pushed out of Lebanon. And here we are…
The participants in the National Dialogue aiming for a unified Lebanon and one sovereign government/one Lebanese army, tried to negotiate the disarmament with Hassan Nasrallah, to no avail. Many of them spoke openly about their opposition to Hezbollah’s armed faction. Two weeks before the sad events on July 12th, negotiation came to a halt. It is said that some leaders in the National Dialogue, sensing that Hezbollah is cornered and might retaliate, asked Nasrallah to postpone any actions that might harm Lebanon’s tourist season and re-building process till the end of summer. They tried to gain time to hopefully influence the process in power centers outside Lebanon: United States, Syria, Iran….
Did the Lebanese government hit a brick wall and made a backroom deal with the US? Nasrallah sure seems to imply that in his latest TV address on July 25th, where he spoke as the head of a State omitting the mention of a Lebanese sovereign government and considering the ‘resistance’ the spokesperson and defender of Lebanon.
Did Israel plan this offensive on Lebanon after Syria’s withdrawal, Hamas’ victory and the upheaval in Ghaza? It sure did and showed the plans to invade Lebanon to generals in the Pentagon a year ago, and waited for Hezbollah to provoke the prepared offensive. Hezbollah obliged timing its actions around the G8 summit in Russia.
Syria is the primary benefactor in this messy situation. With its influence on Hezbollah, Syria is amassing negotiation points it can bring to the table when negotiating indirectly with the United States.
Israel is becoming aware by the day that it cannot ‘win the war’ on Hezbollah. They started by asking for 20 km inside the Lebanese borders, went down to 7 km and now probably 2 km. The battles in Bint Jbeil and Maroun AlRas surprised the army and boasted the rhetoric of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is now defining victory as simple survivor calling every child and elderly dying ‘Shaheed’( martyr)
“Lebanon’s wars serve other countries... never the Lebanese”
Lebanon is such a frail country where decision-makers have to be like precision driven engineers building in dangerous earthquake regions. The Lebanese government is trying to keep unity and avoid a civil war between the various factions. Lebanon unlike any other Arab country and unlike Israel, has a multi-religion based society of more than 18 sects, and most of them are represented in the government. With such an unusual make up, it is easy for external parties to influence factions in Lebanon, train them and use them for their own benefit. Israel did that with the Maronites in the 80s, Iran with Hezbollah and Syria with any corrupt party and leader they can get.
The bottom line is that Syria, Iran, Israel and the US are playing an old dirty game on Lebanese soil and the Lebanese people are paying the price. 20 years later, same story different day!
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